FORECASTING OF THE EPIDEMIC PROPAGATION BASED ON SOLVING THE INVERSE PROBLEM FOR DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF EPIDEMICS WITH VACCINATION

Авторы:

Serovajsky S. (Соавтор)

Azimov A. (Соавтор)

Imankulov, T. (Соавтор)

Turar, O. (Соавтор)

Издательство:

Jomard Publishing

Дата издания

10.02.2025

Область исследования

Инжиниринг и технологии

Тип исследования

Фундаментальное

Аннотация (краткое описание)

Discrete and continuous compartmental models of the spread of the epidemic are considered, taking into account vaccination and limited time spent in groups. Models include the following groups of people: susceptible, contacted, three categories of patients that are undetected, isolated and hospitalized, immunized, vaccinated, and contact vaccinated. Conducted qualitative and quantitative proposed models. The influence of process parameters is investigated. The problems of restoring the coefficients of the equations under consideration are set based on the results of measuring the number of registered patients, vaccinated and deceased. The inverse problems under consideration are solved using the corresponding optimization methods. As an example, the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kazakhstan is being studied. © 2025, Jomard Publishing. All rights reserved.

Соответствие целям устойчивого развития (ЦУР)

3. 

Хорошее здоровье и благополучие

URI

Discrete and continuous compartmental models of the spread of the epidemic are considered, taking into account vaccination and limited time spent in groups. Models include the following groups of people: susceptible, contacted, three categories of patients that are undetected, isolated and hospitalized, immunized, vaccinated, and contact vaccinated. Conducted qualitative and quantitative proposed models. The influence of process parameters is investigated. The problems of restoring the coefficients of the equations under consideration are set based on the results of measuring the number of registered patients, vaccinated and deceased. The inverse problems under consideration are solved using the corresponding optimization methods. As an example, the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kazakhstan is being studied. © 2025, Jomard Publishing. All rights reserved.

DOI

10.62476/amma.102224

Тип публикаций

Статья

Сведения о финансировании

Acknowledgement. This research was supported by the Grant No. AP09260317 \u201CDevelopment of an intelligent system for assessing the development of COVID-19 epidemics and other infections in Kazakhstan\u201D of al-Farabi Kazakh National University.

Данный документ располагается в коллекциях

Международные публикации ученых SU

Scopus

Файлы документа

FORECASTING OF THE EPIDEMIC PROPAGATION BASED ON SOLVING THE INVERSE PROBLEM FOR DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF EPIDEMICS WITH VACCINATION.pdf