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Дата издания
16.08.2023Область исследования
Тип исследования
Аннотация (краткое описание)
The Shulbinsk Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) located on the Irtysh River in the eastern part of Kazakhstan is one of the largest and oldest hydropower plants in the country. The efficiency of water management systems in the Shulbi reservoir heavily depends on discharge of the Oba and Ulbi rivers, which are the right-hand tributaries of the Irtysh River. This region is characterized by a sparse network of observation stations, which do not allow to fully represent hydrological processes occurring in the area, and therefore planning of adaptation measures related to climate change could be problematic. To overcome this limitation, our study uses the available high-resolution global climate dataset WATCH and explores the possibility of using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) to predict river discharge in the basins of the Oba and Ulbi rivers. SWIM was calibrated and validated for the entire Oba and Ulbi river basins. The period from 1962 to 1971 was used as a calibration period, and the period from 1972 to 2016 as a validation period considering every decade separately. The Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and relative volume error (RVE) were used to assess performance of the model. The calibration results showed a good agreement between the modeled and observed discharge with NSE of 0.86 and RVE of 5.6 % for the Oba River and NSE of 0.84 and RVE of 0.2 % for the Ulbi River. The analysis of modelling results shows that also the high flow indices Q10 and Q5 corresponding to 90th and 95th percentiles, respectively, are represented sufficiently well by the model SWIM. Based on the obtained results, we can conclude that the model could be successfully applied for predicting discharge and high flows of both rivers in the coming decades, and for projecting discharge in the future under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2023, Authors. All rights reserved.DOI
10.32014/2023.2518-170X.385Тип публикаций
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