Long-Term Water Level Projections for Lake Balkhash Using Scenario-Based Water Balance Modeling Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties

Авторы:

Alimkulov, S. (Соавтор)

Baspakova, G. (Соавтор)

Smagulov, Z. (Соавтор)

Makhmudova, L. (Соавтор)

Talipova, E. (Соавтор)

Myrzakhmetov, A (Соавтор)

Zagidullina, A. (Соавтор)

Издательство:

Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)

Дата издания

01.07.2025

Область исследования

Инжиниринг и технологии

Тип исследования

Фундаментальное

Аннотация (краткое описание)

The study presents a scenario analysis of the long-term dynamics of the water level of Lake Balkhash, one of the largest closed lakes in Central Asia, taking into account climate change according to CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and socio-economic factors of water use. Based on historical data (1947–2021) and a water balance model, the contribution of surface runoff, precipitation and evaporation to the formation of the lake’s hydrological regime was assessed. It was established that the main source of water resources for the lake is the flow of the Ile River, which feeds the western part of the reservoir. The eastern part is characterized by extremely limited water inflow, while evaporation remains the main element of water consumption, having increased significantly in recent decades due to rising air temperatures. Increasing intra-seasonal and interannual fluctuations in water levels have been recorded: The amplitude of short-term fluctuations reached 0.7–0.8 m, which exceeds previously characteristic values. The results of water balance modeling up to 2050 show a trend towards a 30% reduction in surface inflow and an increase in evaporation by 25% compared to the 1981–2010 climate norm, which highlights the high sensitivity of the lake’s hydrological regime to climatic and anthropogenic influences. The results obtained justify the need for the comprehensive and adaptive management of water resources in the Balkhash Lake basin, taking into account the transboundary nature of water use and changing climatic conditions. © 2025 by the authors.

Соответствие целям устойчивого развития (ЦУР)

6. 

Чистая вода и санитария

8. 

Достойная работа и экономический рост

13. 

Борьба с изменением климата

URI

https://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?eid=2-s2.0-105010514984&origin=resultslist

DOI

10.3390/w17132021

Тип публикаций

Статья

Сведения о финансировании

This research was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Grant No. AP19677869 \u201CHydrological bases for managing the level regime of Balkash Lake.\u201D The APC was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Данный документ располагается в коллекциях

Международные публикации ученых SU

Scopus

Файлы документа

Long Term Water Level Projections for Lake Balkhash Using Scenario Based Water Balance Modeling Under Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties (1).pdf