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Дата издания
14.06.2025Область исследования
Тип исследования
Аннотация (краткое описание)
Extensive flooding swept across large areas of Central Asia, mainly over Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia, from late March to April 2024. It was reported to be the worst flooding in the area in the past 70 years and caused widespread devastation to society and infrastructure. However, the drivers of this record-breaking flood remain unexplored. Here, we show that the record-breaking floods were contributed by both long-term climate warming and interannual variability, with multiple climatic drivers at play across the synoptic to seasonal timescales. First, the heavy snowmelt in March 2024 was associated with above-normal preceding winter snow accumulation. Second, extreme rainfall was at a record-high during March 2024, in line with its increasing trend under climate warming. Third, the snowmelt and extreme rainfall in March were compounded by record-high soil moisture conditions in the preceding winter, which was a result of interannual variability and related to excessive winter rainfall over Central Asia. As climate warming continues, the interplay between the increasing trend of extreme rainfall, interannual variations in soil moisture pre-conditions, as well as shifting timing and magnitudes of spring snowmelt, will further increase and complicate spring flooding risks. This is a growing and widespread challenge for the mid- to high-latitude regions. © Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Science Press 2025.DOI
10.1007/s00376-025-4425-6Тип публикаций
Сведения о финансировании
The study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42422502, 42275038) and the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No. QBZ202306).Дата подачи заявки
01.01.1970Данный документ располагается в коллекциях
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